{ "date": "2026-05-23", "freshness": { "is_latest_success_run": true, "latest_success_run_date": "2026-05-23", "latest_success_run_id": 52, "reason": "successful daily run found for requested date", "requested_date": "2026-05-23", "source_run_date": "2026-05-23", "source_run_id": 52, "status": "fresh" }, "generated_at": "2026-05-23T02:09:33.675125+00:00", "product": { "accuracy": { "actual_support_rate": 0.483871, "algorithm": "BRIER_SCALED_ACCURACY", "average_predicted_probability": 0.526932, "brier_skill_score": -0.106892, "buckets": [ { "actual_support_rate": 0.75, "average_predicted_probability": 0.45435, "bucket": "40-50%", "calibration_error": 0.29565, "direction_hit_rate": 0.25, "high_confidence_count": 0, "high_confidence_miss_rate": null, "prediction_accuracy": 0.463368, "scored_count": 24 }, { "actual_support_rate": 0.3125, "average_predicted_probability": 0.5657, "bucket": "50-60%", "calibration_error": 0.2532, "direction_hit_rate": 0.3125, "high_confidence_count": 0, "high_confidence_miss_rate": null, "prediction_accuracy": 0.442563, "scored_count": 32 }, { "actual_support_rate": 0.333333, "average_predicted_probability": 0.6105, "bucket": "60-70%", "calibration_error": 0.277167, "direction_hit_rate": 0.333333, "high_confidence_count": 0, "high_confidence_miss_rate": null, "prediction_accuracy": 0.400578, "scored_count": 6 } ], "calibration_error": 0.043061, "direction_hit_rate": 0.290323, "display_note": "样本量已进入可参考区间。", "event_count": 62, "formula": "prediction_accuracy = clamp(1 - 2 * mean_brier, 0, 1)", "high_confidence_count": 0, "high_confidence_miss_count": 0, "high_confidence_miss_rate": null, "latest_resolution_at": "2026-05-22T16:04:00.950075", "latest_reviewed_at": "2026-05-23", "latest_reviewed_label": "2026-05-23", "mean_brier": 0.276723, "pending_review_count": 2, "prediction_accuracy": 0.446554, "sample_label": "n=62 · 可参考", "scored_count": 62, "status": "ACTIVE", "unscored_count": 0 }, "positions": [ { "calibration_status": "UNTRACKED", "current_return_pct": -0.6937, "direction_intent": "LONG", "entry_reference": { "currency": "USD", "entry_price": 75926.7, "observed_at": "2026-05-22T21:26:41+00:00", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, "execution_condition": "Price path is unavailable; preserve simulated exposure.", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-505", "instrument": "BTC-USD", "invalidation": "ETF 净流入转负、资金费率过热，或 BTC 跌破趋势支撑。", "max_weight_pct": null, "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "position_action": "HOLD", "position_event_id": "pe-34", "position_id": "position-btc-usd-fq-btc-usd-soft-landing-liquidity-3-10", "prediction_id": "primary-btc-usd-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": -0.07, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-23T02:08:28+00:00", "previous_close": 75449.63, "price": 75400.02, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "BTC-USD" }, "return_attribution": { "current_price": 75400.02, "current_return_pct": -0.6937, "direction_multiplier": 1.0, "entry_price": 75926.7, "method": "ENTRY_TO_CURRENT", "price_observed_at": "2026-05-23T02:08:28+00:00", "status": "AVAILABLE" }, "review_after": "2026-06-05", "risk_level": "高", "side": "LONG", "size_hint": "SMALL", "status": "SIMULATED", "target_weight_pct": null, "ticker": "BTC-USD" }, { "calibration_status": "UNTRACKED", "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_intent": "LONG", "entry_reference": { "currency": "USD", "entry_price": 413.82, "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, "execution_condition": "Price path is unavailable; preserve simulated exposure.", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-507", "instrument": "GLD", "invalidation": "实际利率和美元同步走强，黄金无法守住支撑。", "max_weight_pct": null, "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "position_action": "HOLD", "position_event_id": "pe-31", "position_id": "position-gld-fq-gld-supply-risk-premium-5-20", "prediction_id": "secondary-gld-supply-risk-premium", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": -0.76, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 416.99, "price": 413.82, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "GLD" }, "return_attribution": { "current_price": 413.82, "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_multiplier": 1.0, "entry_price": 413.82, "method": "ENTRY_TO_CURRENT", "price_observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "status": "AVAILABLE" }, "review_after": "2026-06-19", "risk_level": "中", "side": "LONG", "size_hint": "BASE", "status": "SIMULATED", "target_weight_pct": null, "ticker": "GLD" }, { "calibration_status": "UNTRACKED", "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_intent": "LONG", "entry_reference": { "currency": "USD", "entry_price": 79.91, "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, "execution_condition": "Price path is unavailable; preserve simulated exposure.", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-508", "instrument": "HYG", "invalidation": "信用利差重新走阔且权益下跌扩散。", "max_weight_pct": null, "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "position_action": "HOLD", "position_event_id": "pe-33", "position_id": "position-hyg-fq-hyg-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15", "prediction_id": "primary-hyg-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.01, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 79.9, "price": 79.91, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "HYG" }, "return_attribution": { "current_price": 79.91, "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_multiplier": 1.0, "entry_price": 79.91, "method": "ENTRY_TO_CURRENT", "price_observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "status": "AVAILABLE" }, "review_after": "2026-06-12", "risk_level": "中", "side": "LONG", "size_hint": "BASE", "status": "SIMULATED", "target_weight_pct": null, "ticker": "HYG" }, { "calibration_status": "UNTRACKED", "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_intent": "LONG", "entry_reference": { "currency": "USD", "entry_price": 717.54, "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, "execution_condition": "Price path is unavailable; preserve simulated exposure.", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-501", "instrument": "QQQ", "invalidation": "2Y yield 重新上行且 QQQ 相对 SPY 转弱。", "max_weight_pct": null, "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "position_action": "HOLD", "position_event_id": "pe-36", "position_id": "position-qqq-fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15", "prediction_id": "primary-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.42, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 714.51, "price": 717.54, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "QQQ" }, "return_attribution": { "current_price": 717.54, "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_multiplier": 1.0, "entry_price": 717.54, "method": "ENTRY_TO_CURRENT", "price_observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "status": "AVAILABLE" }, "review_after": "2026-06-12", "risk_level": "中", "side": "LONG", "size_hint": "OVERWEIGHT", "status": "SIMULATED", "target_weight_pct": null, "ticker": "QQQ" }, { "calibration_status": "UNTRACKED", "current_return_pct": -0.0, "direction_intent": "SHORT", "entry_reference": { "currency": "USD", "entry_price": 27.77, "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, "execution_condition": "Price path is unavailable; preserve simulated exposure.", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-502", "instrument": "UUP", "invalidation": "DXY 重新走强并与利率上行共振。", "max_weight_pct": null, "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "position_action": "HOLD", "position_event_id": "pe-32", "position_id": "position-uup-fq-uup-soft-landing-liquidity-3-10", "prediction_id": "primary-uup-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.14, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 27.73, "price": 27.77, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "UUP" }, "return_attribution": { "current_price": 27.77, "current_return_pct": -0.0, "direction_multiplier": -1.0, "entry_price": 27.77, "method": "ENTRY_TO_CURRENT", "price_observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "status": "AVAILABLE" }, "review_after": "2026-06-05", "risk_level": "中", "side": "SHORT", "size_hint": "TINY", "status": "SIMULATED", "target_weight_pct": null, "ticker": "UUP" }, { "calibration_status": "UNTRACKED", "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_intent": "LONG", "entry_reference": { "currency": "USD", "entry_price": 59.49, "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, "execution_condition": "Price path is unavailable; preserve simulated exposure.", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-504", "instrument": "XLE", "invalidation": "油价回落且 XLE 相对 SPY 走弱。", "max_weight_pct": null, "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "position_action": "HOLD", "position_event_id": "pe-30", "position_id": "position-xle-fq-xle-supply-risk-premium-5-20", "prediction_id": "secondary-xle-supply-risk-premium", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.61, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 59.13, "price": 59.49, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "XLE" }, "return_attribution": { "current_price": 59.49, "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_multiplier": 1.0, "entry_price": 59.49, "method": "ENTRY_TO_CURRENT", "price_observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "status": "AVAILABLE" }, "review_after": "2026-06-19", "risk_level": "中", "side": "LONG", "size_hint": "BASE", "status": "SIMULATED", "target_weight_pct": null, "ticker": "XLE" }, { "calibration_status": "UNTRACKED", "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_intent": "LONG", "entry_reference": { "currency": "USD", "entry_price": 180.39, "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, "execution_condition": "Price path is unavailable; preserve simulated exposure.", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-506", "instrument": "XLK", "invalidation": "AI infra evidence 降温，或 XLK 相对 SPY 转弱。", "max_weight_pct": null, "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "position_action": "HOLD", "position_event_id": "pe-29", "position_id": "position-xlk-fq-xlk-ai-infrastructure-repricing-5-20", "prediction_id": "risk-xlk-ai-infrastructure-repricing", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 1.0, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 178.6, "price": 180.39, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "XLK" }, "return_attribution": { "current_price": 180.39, "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_multiplier": 1.0, "entry_price": 180.39, "method": "ENTRY_TO_CURRENT", "price_observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "status": "AVAILABLE" }, "review_after": "2026-06-19", "risk_level": "中", "side": "LONG", "size_hint": "BASE", "status": "SIMULATED", "target_weight_pct": null, "ticker": "XLK" }, { "calibration_status": "UNTRACKED", "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_intent": "WATCH", "entry_reference": { "currency": "USD", "entry_price": 84.68, "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, "execution_condition": "Position is watch-only; keep observing without simulated exposure.", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-503", "instrument": "TLT", "invalidation": "10Y yield 放量上破并带动 TLT 跌破短期趋势。", "max_weight_pct": null, "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "position_action": "WATCH", "position_event_id": "pe-35", "position_id": "position-tlt-fq-tlt-soft-landing-liquidity-5-20", "prediction_id": "primary-tlt-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.55, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 84.22, "price": 84.68, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "TLT" }, "return_attribution": { "current_price": 84.68, "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_multiplier": 1.0, "entry_price": 84.68, "method": "ENTRY_TO_CURRENT", "price_observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "status": "AVAILABLE" }, "review_after": "2026-06-19", "risk_level": "中", "side": "WATCH", "size_hint": "SMALL", "status": "WATCHING", "target_weight_pct": null, "ticker": "TLT" }, { "calibration_status": "UNTRACKED", "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_intent": "WATCH", "entry_reference": { "currency": "USD", "entry_price": 140.92, "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "source": "Yahoo Finance chart" }, "execution_condition": "Position is watch-only; keep observing without simulated exposure.", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-510", "instrument": "USO", "invalidation": "供应风险缓解，库存累积，油价无法维持突破。", "max_weight_pct": null, "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "position_action": "WATCH", "position_event_id": "pe-28", "position_id": "position-uso-fq-uso-supply-risk-premium-3-10", "prediction_id": "secondary-uso-supply-risk-premium", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": -1.14, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 142.54, "price": 140.92, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "USO" }, "return_attribution": { "current_price": 140.92, "current_return_pct": 0.0, "direction_multiplier": 1.0, "entry_price": 140.92, "method": "ENTRY_TO_CURRENT", "price_observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "status": "AVAILABLE" }, "review_after": "2026-06-05", "risk_level": "中高", "side": "WATCH", "size_hint": "SMALL", "status": "WATCHING", "target_weight_pct": null, "ticker": "USO" } ], "predictions": [ { "asset_class": "美股成长 ETF", "base_rate_probability": 0.5, "calibration_status": "HEURISTIC", "confidence": 0.7099, "direction": "偏多", "direction_intent": "LONG", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-501", "forecast_issuance_status": "ISSUED", "horizon": "5-15 交易日", "instrument": "QQQ", "invalidation": "2Y yield 重新上行且 QQQ 相对 SPY 转弱。", "issued_at": "2026-05-22T21:00:05.366693", "market": "US Equity", "model_version": "market_state.v3.outcome-contract-2", "narrative": "Soft Landing Liquidity", "next_action": "WAIT_FOR_REVIEW_WINDOW", "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "payoff_summary": "Upside +1.1% if 2Y yield 下行; downside is governed by 2Y yield 重新上行且 QQQ 相对 SPY 转弱.", "position_id": "position-primary-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity", "posterior_probability": 0.6123, "prediction_id": "primary-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.42, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 714.51, "price": 717.54, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "QQQ" }, "question_id": "fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日", "review_after": "2026-06-12", "risk_level": "中", "selection_rank": 1, "selection_score": 80.82, "selection_status": "SELECTED", "signal_count": 6, "status": "VALIDATED", "survival_note": "Use 19.0%-28.5% as max exposure; keep optionality and cut when invalidation triggers.", "thesis": "增长韧性与降息 optionality 同时存在时，成长股更容易获得估值支撑。", "ticker": "QQQ" }, { "asset_class": "长久期美债 ETF", "base_rate_probability": 0.54, "calibration_status": "HEURISTIC", "confidence": 0.6899, "direction": "偏多", "direction_intent": "LONG", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-503", "forecast_issuance_status": "ISSUED", "horizon": "5-20 交易日", "instrument": "TLT", "invalidation": "10Y yield 放量上破并带动 TLT 跌破短期趋势。", "issued_at": "2026-05-22T21:00:05.366693", "market": "US Rates", "model_version": "market_state.v3.outcome-contract-2", "narrative": "Soft Landing Liquidity", "next_action": "WAIT_FOR_REVIEW_WINDOW", "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "payoff_summary": "Upside +0.8% if 实际利率回落; downside is governed by 10Y yield 放量上破并带动 TLT 跌破短期趋势.", "position_id": "position-primary-tlt-soft-landing-liquidity", "posterior_probability": 0.6097, "prediction_id": "primary-tlt-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.55, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 84.22, "price": 84.68, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "TLT" }, "question_id": "fq-tlt-soft-landing-liquidity-5-20-交易日", "review_after": "2026-06-19", "risk_level": "中", "selection_rank": 2, "selection_score": 75.42, "selection_status": "SELECTED", "signal_count": 6, "status": "VALIDATED", "survival_note": "Use 9.5%-14.2% as max exposure; keep optionality and cut when invalidation triggers.", "thesis": "若市场继续交易降息路径，长久期债券具备战术反弹空间。", "ticker": "TLT" }, { "asset_class": "加密现货", "base_rate_probability": 0.52, "calibration_status": "HEURISTIC", "confidence": 0.6799, "direction": "偏多", "direction_intent": "LONG", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-505", "forecast_issuance_status": "ISSUED", "horizon": "3-10 交易日", "instrument": "BTC-USD", "invalidation": "ETF 净流入转负、资金费率过热，或 BTC 跌破趋势支撑。", "issued_at": "2026-05-22T21:00:05.366693", "market": "Crypto", "model_version": "market_state.v3.outcome-contract-2", "narrative": "Soft Landing Liquidity", "next_action": "WAIT_FOR_REVIEW_WINDOW", "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "payoff_summary": "Upside +2.3% if BTC ETF 净流入; downside is governed by ETF 净流入转负、资金费率过热，或 BTC 跌破趋势支撑.", "position_id": "position-primary-btc-usd-soft-landing-liquidity", "posterior_probability": 0.5784, "prediction_id": "primary-btc-usd-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": -0.07, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-23T02:08:28+00:00", "previous_close": 75449.63, "price": 75400.02, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "BTC-USD" }, "question_id": "fq-btc-usd-soft-landing-liquidity-3-10-交易日", "review_after": "2026-06-05", "risk_level": "高", "selection_rank": 3, "selection_score": 75.02, "selection_status": "SELECTED", "signal_count": 8, "status": "VALIDATED", "survival_note": "High-vol crypto; cap at 4.8%-11.4%, reduce on funding overheat, ETF outflow, or trend break.", "thesis": "美元走弱、实际利率回落和风险偏好改善会同步抬升 BTC 的流动性 beta。", "ticker": "BTC-USD" }, { "asset_class": "高收益债 ETF", "base_rate_probability": 0.54, "calibration_status": "HEURISTIC", "confidence": 0.6699, "direction": "偏多", "direction_intent": "LONG", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-508", "forecast_issuance_status": "ISSUED", "horizon": "5-15 交易日", "instrument": "HYG", "invalidation": "信用利差重新走阔且权益下跌扩散。", "issued_at": "2026-05-22T21:00:05.366693", "market": "Credit", "model_version": "market_state.v3.outcome-contract-2", "narrative": "Soft Landing Liquidity", "next_action": "WAIT_FOR_REVIEW_WINDOW", "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "payoff_summary": "Upside +0.5% if HY spread 收窄; downside is governed by 信用利差重新走阔且权益下跌扩散.", "position_id": "position-primary-hyg-soft-landing-liquidity", "posterior_probability": 0.6071, "prediction_id": "primary-hyg-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.01, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 79.9, "price": 79.91, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "HYG" }, "question_id": "fq-hyg-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日", "review_after": "2026-06-12", "risk_level": "中", "selection_rank": 4, "selection_score": 74.42, "selection_status": "SELECTED", "signal_count": 6, "status": "VALIDATED", "survival_note": "Use 9.5%-19.0% as max exposure; keep optionality and cut when invalidation triggers.", "thesis": "风险偏好改善通常压缩信用利差，HYG 可作为风险扩散是否成立的确认资产。", "ticker": "HYG" }, { "asset_class": "美元指数 ETF", "base_rate_probability": 0.5, "calibration_status": "HEURISTIC", "confidence": 0.7099, "direction": "偏空", "direction_intent": "SHORT", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-502", "forecast_issuance_status": "ISSUED", "horizon": "3-10 交易日", "instrument": "UUP", "invalidation": "DXY 重新走强并与利率上行共振。", "issued_at": "2026-05-22T21:00:05.366693", "market": "Dollar", "model_version": "market_state.v3.outcome-contract-2", "narrative": "Soft Landing Liquidity", "next_action": "WAIT_FOR_REVIEW_WINDOW", "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "payoff_summary": "Defensive payoff from avoiding -0.6% drag if pressure confirms; revisit when DXY 重新走强并与利率上行共振.", "position_id": "position-primary-uup-soft-landing-liquidity", "posterior_probability": 0.6123, "prediction_id": "primary-uup-soft-landing-liquidity", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.14, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 27.73, "price": 27.77, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "UUP" }, "question_id": "fq-uup-soft-landing-liquidity-3-10-交易日", "review_after": "2026-06-05", "risk_level": "中", "selection_rank": 5, "selection_score": 76.82, "selection_status": "SELECTED", "signal_count": 6, "status": "VALIDATED", "survival_note": "Use 0%-4.8% as max exposure; keep optionality and cut when invalidation triggers.", "thesis": "软着陆与降息 optionality 同时升温时，美元多头的边际吸引力下降。", "ticker": "UUP" }, { "asset_class": "黄金 ETF", "base_rate_probability": 0.42, "calibration_status": "HEURISTIC", "confidence": 0.7265, "direction": "偏多", "direction_intent": "LONG", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-507", "forecast_issuance_status": "ISSUED", "horizon": "5-20 交易日", "instrument": "GLD", "invalidation": "实际利率和美元同步走强，黄金无法守住支撑。", "issued_at": "2026-05-22T21:00:05.366693", "market": "Precious Metals", "model_version": "market_state.v3.outcome-contract-2", "narrative": "Supply Risk Premium", "next_action": "WAIT_FOR_REVIEW_WINDOW", "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "payoff_summary": "Upside +1.2% if 实际利率回落; downside is governed by 实际利率和美元同步走强，黄金无法守住支撑.", "position_id": "position-secondary-gld-supply-risk-premium", "posterior_probability": 0.6144, "prediction_id": "secondary-gld-supply-risk-premium", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": -0.76, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 416.99, "price": 413.82, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "GLD" }, "question_id": "fq-gld-supply-risk-premium-5-20-交易日", "review_after": "2026-06-19", "risk_level": "中", "selection_rank": 6, "selection_score": 74.73, "selection_status": "SELECTED", "signal_count": 6, "status": "TRACKING", "survival_note": "Tail-risk sleeve; cap at 10%-20% and do not average down after invalidation.", "thesis": "供应链和地缘扰动会抬升避险需求，实际利率回落时黄金弹性更高。", "ticker": "GLD" }, { "asset_class": "能源行业 ETF", "base_rate_probability": 0.54, "calibration_status": "HEURISTIC", "confidence": 0.7065, "direction": "偏多", "direction_intent": "LONG", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-504", "forecast_issuance_status": "ISSUED", "horizon": "5-20 交易日", "instrument": "XLE", "invalidation": "油价回落且 XLE 相对 SPY 走弱。", "issued_at": "2026-05-22T21:00:05.366693", "market": "US Equity", "model_version": "market_state.v3.outcome-contract-2", "narrative": "Supply Risk Premium", "next_action": "WAIT_FOR_REVIEW_WINDOW", "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "payoff_summary": "Upside +0.9% if 油价突破; downside is governed by 油价回落且 XLE 相对 SPY 走弱.", "position_id": "position-secondary-xle-supply-risk-premium", "posterior_probability": 0.6118, "prediction_id": "secondary-xle-supply-risk-premium", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 0.61, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 59.13, "price": 59.49, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "XLE" }, "question_id": "fq-xle-supply-risk-premium-5-20-交易日", "review_after": "2026-06-19", "risk_level": "中", "selection_rank": 7, "selection_score": 75.33, "selection_status": "SELECTED", "signal_count": 6, "status": "TRACKING", "survival_note": "Use 10%-18% as max exposure; keep optionality and cut when invalidation triggers.", "thesis": "若商品风险溢价上升，能源股可作为比原油更低杠杆的权益表达。", "ticker": "XLE" }, { "asset_class": "科技行业 ETF", "base_rate_probability": 0.5, "calibration_status": "HEURISTIC", "confidence": 0.7217, "direction": "偏多/相对跑赢", "direction_intent": "LONG", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-506", "forecast_issuance_status": "ISSUED", "horizon": "5-20 交易日", "instrument": "XLK", "invalidation": "AI infra evidence 降温，或 XLK 相对 SPY 转弱。", "issued_at": "2026-05-22T21:00:05.366693", "market": "US Equity", "model_version": "market_state.v3.outcome-contract-2", "narrative": "AI Infrastructure Repricing", "next_action": "WAIT_FOR_REVIEW_WINDOW", "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "payoff_summary": "Upside +1.0% if AI capex 指引上修; downside is governed by AI infra evidence 降温，或 XLK 相对 SPY 转弱.", "position_id": "position-risk-xlk-ai-infrastructure-repricing", "posterior_probability": 0.6138, "prediction_id": "risk-xlk-ai-infrastructure-repricing", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": 1.0, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 178.6, "price": 180.39, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "XLK" }, "question_id": "fq-xlk-ai-infrastructure-repricing-5-20-交易日", "review_after": "2026-06-19", "risk_level": "中", "selection_rank": 8, "selection_score": 74.89, "selection_status": "SELECTED", "signal_count": 6, "status": "WATCHING", "survival_note": "Use 15%-25% as max exposure; keep optionality and cut when invalidation triggers.", "thesis": "AI capex、模型基础设施和开发工具采用继续支撑科技股相对强势。", "ticker": "XLK" }, { "asset_class": "原油 ETF", "base_rate_probability": 0.42, "calibration_status": "HEURISTIC", "confidence": 0.6865, "direction": "偏多", "direction_intent": "LONG", "forecast_issuance_id": "fi-510", "forecast_issuance_status": "ISSUED", "horizon": "3-10 交易日", "instrument": "USO", "invalidation": "供应风险缓解，库存累积，油价无法维持突破。", "issued_at": "2026-05-22T21:00:05.366693", "market": "Energy", "model_version": "market_state.v3.outcome-contract-2", "narrative": "Supply Risk Premium", "next_action": "WAIT_FOR_REVIEW_WINDOW", "outcome_status": "UNRESOLVED", "payoff_summary": "Upside +1.5% if 库存下降; downside is governed by 供应风险缓解，库存累积，油价无法维持突破.", "position_id": "position-secondary-uso-supply-risk-premium", "posterior_probability": 0.5792, "prediction_id": "secondary-uso-supply-risk-premium", "price_snapshot": { "change_pct": -1.14, "currency": "USD", "observed_at": "2026-05-22T20:00:00+00:00", "previous_close": 142.54, "price": 140.92, "source": "Yahoo Finance chart", "ticker": "USO" }, "question_id": "fq-uso-supply-risk-premium-3-10-交易日", "review_after": "2026-06-05", "risk_level": "中高", "selection_rank": 9, "selection_score": 69.72, "selection_status": "SELECTED", "signal_count": 6, "status": "TRACKING", "survival_note": "Tail-risk sleeve; cap at 5%-10% and do not average down after invalidation.", "thesis": "能源供应扰动会提高原油风险溢价，但库存与期限结构必须确认。", "ticker": "USO" } ], "schema_version": "product_seed.v1", "signals": [ { "after_probability": 0.5232, "before_probability": 0.5, "confidence": 0.7299, "direction": "supports", "evidence_refs": [ "evidence:4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "evidence:68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "evidence:c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "evidence:c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "evidence:32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087", "narrative:Soft Landing Liquidity", "ticker:QQQ", "question:fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日" ], "evidence_update_ids": [ "4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087" ], "factor_name": "2Y yield 下行", "factor_state": "Catalyst that should validate the thesis before sizing up.", "manual_signal_refs": [], "prediction_id": "primary-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity", "probability_delta": 0.0232, "question_id": "fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日", "signal_id": "pfu-fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-2y-yield-1", "signal_type": "PREDICTION_FACTOR_UPDATE", "source": "FORECAST_FACTOR", "source_priority": "PREDICTION_FACTOR_FIRST", "ticker": "QQQ", "weight": 0.12 }, { "after_probability": 0.5463, "before_probability": 0.5232, "confidence": 0.7299, "direction": "supports", "evidence_refs": [ "evidence:4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "evidence:68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "evidence:c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "evidence:c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "evidence:32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087", "narrative:Soft Landing Liquidity", "ticker:QQQ", "question:fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日" ], "evidence_update_ids": [ "4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087" ], "factor_name": "DXY 不再走强", "factor_state": "Catalyst that should validate the thesis before sizing up.", "manual_signal_refs": [], "prediction_id": "primary-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity", "probability_delta": 0.0231, "question_id": "fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日", "signal_id": "pfu-fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-dxy-2", "signal_type": "PREDICTION_FACTOR_UPDATE", "source": "FORECAST_FACTOR", "source_priority": "PREDICTION_FACTOR_FIRST", "ticker": "QQQ", "weight": 0.12 }, { "after_probability": 0.5692, "before_probability": 0.5463, "confidence": 0.7299, "direction": "supports", "evidence_refs": [ "evidence:4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "evidence:68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "evidence:c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "evidence:c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "evidence:32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087", "narrative:Soft Landing Liquidity", "ticker:QQQ", "question:fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日" ], "evidence_update_ids": [ "4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087" ], "factor_name": "盈利预期稳定", "factor_state": "Catalyst that should validate the thesis before sizing up.", "manual_signal_refs": [], "prediction_id": "primary-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity", "probability_delta": 0.0229, "question_id": "fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日", "signal_id": "pfu-fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-u-180585a10d-3", "signal_type": "PREDICTION_FACTOR_UPDATE", "source": "FORECAST_FACTOR", "source_priority": "PREDICTION_FACTOR_FIRST", "ticker": "QQQ", "weight": 0.12 }, { "after_probability": 0.5837, "before_probability": 0.5692, "confidence": 0.6999, "direction": "watch", "evidence_refs": [ "evidence:4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "evidence:68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "evidence:c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "evidence:c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "evidence:32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087", "narrative:Soft Landing Liquidity", "ticker:QQQ", "question:fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日" ], "evidence_update_ids": [ "4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087" ], "factor_name": "QQQ/SPY 相对强弱", "factor_state": "Monitoring signal; deterioration should reduce posterior confidence.", "manual_signal_refs": [], "prediction_id": "primary-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity", "probability_delta": 0.0145, "question_id": "fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日", "signal_id": "pfu-fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-qqq-spy-4", "signal_type": "PREDICTION_FACTOR_UPDATE", "source": "FORECAST_FACTOR", "source_priority": "PREDICTION_FACTOR_FIRST", "ticker": "QQQ", "weight": 0.08 }, { "after_probability": 0.5981, "before_probability": 0.5837, "confidence": 0.6999, "direction": "watch", "evidence_refs": [ "evidence:4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "evidence:68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "evidence:c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "evidence:c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "evidence:32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087", "narrative:Soft Landing Liquidity", "ticker:QQQ", "question:fq-qqq-soft-landing-liquidity-5-15-交易日" ], "evidence_update_ids": [ "4b97923661d58b5672cf0ce64cb8ea9903940be7a99e6d144a614945a7f1bc77", "68c60a492f7e63d4c1352e0b2f420a2ec30a7d2fdd880612e1ae15e839081f46", "c1580a3a034da5fae56c76cf4f995babbac940d8ae46509f06167d99970df18d", "c81aa6ae718e4015c00a4aee5d331ab33175ed1a3c9a5864be35a627a649ed47", "32ad35657c3be61d29229adc9d59879faaacc77960d35f985207ed3c182b8087" ], "factor_name": "VIX", "factor_state": "Monitoring signal; deterioration should reduce posterior 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